Two weeks in a row, let’s go!
I had an accuracy rating of 91.07% last week. This plus last weeks 92.52% brings my Total Project Accuracy rating up to 86.16%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 3375
Actual: 3100
Accuracy: 91.85%
Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.82
Based on this week’s performance, Austin won’t hit 100% population spread until 7/8/2028
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.96 Spread Rate = 2968 Cases
3 Week: 0.86 Spread Rate = 2661 Cases
2 Week: 0.86 Spread Rate = 2672 Cases
14 Day Average: 491 Avg = 3434 Cases
7 Days Average: 443 Avg = 3100 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Cases are headed down. Since Austin’s high of 4912 cases during the week of 1/11, cases are down 37%. That’s a big drop in only three weeks. I believe this trend will continue, but its going to get colder in Austin this coming week. As I’ve explained before, Temps go down and Cases go up. So this might prevent the cases from dropping to its next low number compared to nicer temps.
Looking at the Spread Rates since December, we can see a trend downward. The Trend line in this graph uses the averages of the current and previous week to illustrate a trend. The trend ends on 0.71 Spread Rate, which is roughly 2201 cases.
The last three weeks have seen new cases drop by, 14.89%, 9.89% and 18.26%. The average of those are 14.33%. If we see a 14.33% drop in cases this week, from last weeks 3100, then that will be 434 less cases or 2666 cases next week. Which both my 3WASR and 2WASR forecasts point to.
Prediction: 2600
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1350
Actual: 1603
Accuracy: 84.22%
Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.91
Passaic was my worst performance last week. I guess the snow wasn’t enough to slow things down during the week, but it may affect future weeks. February 3rd only had 91 reported cases and the two days flanking it were lower numbers than the rest of the week too.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.80 Spread Rate = 1280 Cases
3 Week: 0.93 Spread Rate = 1485 Cases
2 Week: 0.93 Spread Rate = 1496 Cases
14 Day Average: 240 Avg = 1683 Cases
7 Days Average: 229 Avg = 1603 Cases
MY PREDICTION
I’m looking at weather and the Spread Rates trending decline, also last week the cases dropped by 160. I’m inclined to say that this weeks cases will fall between the 4WASR and the 3WASR forecasts.
The average of those two comes out to roughly 1380. I’m hesitant but….i’m not saving lives here so whatevah.
Prediction: 1380
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 2100
Actual: 2191
Accuracy: 95.85%
Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.78
Boston was my best score last week! It also had the second lowest Spread Rate.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.80 Spread Rate = 1761 Cases
3 Week: 0.80 Spread Rate = 1761 Cases
2 Week: 0.80 Spread Rate = 1759 Cases
14 Day Average: 356 Avg = 2495 Cases
7 Days Average: 313 Avg = 2191 Cases
Why are all the Weekly Spread Rate Forecasts so close to each other? The last four weeks have had very similar Spread Rates: 0.80, 0.81, 0.82, 0.78. This causes all the forecasts to be grouped together, since all the numbers they are pulling are similar.
MY PREDICTION
Snow, Snow come and stay. Put that Virus Spread Rate away…..
Last week’s Spread Rate was lower than the former three weeks. If this weeks Spread Rate stays at 0.78 then the new cases for this week would be 1716. I’d be willing to bet the case count lands in that area. But I’ll stick with my 4WASR.
Prediction: 1760
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 3450
Actual: 3186
Accuracy: 92.35%
Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.75
Rhode Island had the lowest Spread Rate last week!
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.84 Spread Rate = 2688 Cases
3 Week: 0.72 Spread Rate = 2304 Cases
2 Week: 0.78 Spread Rate = 2489 Cases
14 Day Average: 677 Avg = 4742 Cases
7 Days Average: 608 Avg = 4254 Cases
MY PREDICTION
The curfew for certain venues was lifted last week, followed immediately by snow fall. So if the curfew has an effect on the Spread Rate, we won’t see it as it gets counter acted. It snowed again yesterday in the area, so I believe the weather will continue to affect the Spread.
Cases have dropped by a 1000 for the last two weeks. So when I see a Forecast of 2304, I’m not surprised. I guess the question is…do we think this drop will continue at its current rate? It’s obvious that the weather is helping.
Also, looking at the last time Rhode Island was over 2500 cases in a week (4/20/20) the Spread Rate declined over 3 weeks and stayed in the 0.75-0.77 range for five weeks before summer plans started to push the numbers higher. Last week was the 3rd week of decline, so if April is any determination then Rhode Islands Spread Rate may rest in the 0.75 area for a little while. But in April the cases went up as temperatures went up, now temperatures are going down so the Spread Rate may not rest.
Fingers Crossed:
Prediction: 2400