I made up for that last time when I missed the mark. I had 92.52% accuracy last week, across all four locations. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaa Booooooooooyyyyyyyy
I’m not bragging, you’re bragging….I’m just a Cow. Moo.
Moooving right along….
My total accuracy rating for this project is now: 85.49% Which is the highest it’s been since I started tracking four locations.
I’m no weather man, but I predict weather will play a theme in the coming weeks.
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 3600
Actual: 3768
Accuracy: 95.54%
Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.90
Looks like the virus is continuing its decline, but we can’t deny that the bad weather last week was a major player. No holidays to gather for, almost impossible to eat outside with the cold and then the Snow keeping people inside. The spread rate might have been 1.0 if not for those factors.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.03 Spread Rate = 3877 Cases
3 Week: 1.00 Spread Rate = 3777 Cases
2 Week: 0.88 Spread Rate = 3302 Cases
14 Day Average: 567 Avg = 3974 Cases
7 Days Average: 538 Avg = 3768 Cases
All formulas agree the cases will be below 4K. The 3WASR formula is capturing 1/11s high 1.25 spread rate while the 2WASR is capturing the two lows of 1/18 & 1/25 (0.85 and 0.90).
The 14 Day average is on the high side because it picked up the tail end of the 1/11 spike that bled into 1/18s week = four days of cases hitting 700 and higher.
MY PREDICTION
As I found in Austin, Texas, the temperature plays a significant role in the virus spread rate from week to week. Temps go down, Spread Rate goes up and visa-versa. See below:
Spread Rate Score goes up or down by 1 based on if the Spread Rate was higher or lower than the week before.
Same goes for the Temp Score, if the Average temp was higher, the score goes up by 1 and visa-versa.
The nice weather (Average Temp is supposed to go up this week) and slowing Spread Rate should help keep cases down this week.
Just going by my gut instinct, I think the cases will land somewhere between the 3WASR and 2WASR forecasts. Actually, last week the cases dropped by 413….so maybe closer to the 2WASR.
Prediction: 3375
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1600
Actual: 1763
Accuracy: 90.75%
Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.96
Passaic had the highest spread rate last week. That’s a good sign for turning this thing around.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.42 Spread Rate = 2509 Cases
3 Week: 0.76 Spread Rate = 1343 Cases
2 Week: 0.94 Spread Rate = 1649 Cases
14 Day Average: 258 Avg = 1929 Cases
7 Days Average: 252 Avg = 1763 Cases
Most formulas predict lower than 2K cases. The 4WASR should be thrown out since its capturing 1/4s 3.41 spread rate. Which was the highest spread rate since March 30ths 3.47
MY PREDICTION
As I found in Austin, Texas, the temperature plays a significant role in the virus spread rate from week to week, see the graph above:
North Jersey just got absolutely dumped on with snow. This is going to stop people from going out, socializing, getting tested and probably slows down tests getting reported. So the numbers will be affected by this. Keep in mind, some of this week’s numbers will be pre-storm numbers being reported later. This storm will probably also effect next weeks (2/8) numbers, just not sure in which direction.
Due to the storm I think the 3WASR is probably close to the real number, maybe even lower???
Prediction: 1350
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 3000
Actual: 2798
Accuracy: 93.27%
Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.82
Boston had the second lowest Spread Rate last week.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.95 Spread Rate = 2657 Cases
3 Week: 0.811 Spread Rate = 2268 Cases
2 Week: 0.814 Spread Rate = 2278 Cases
14 Day Average: 443 Avg = 3100 Cases
7 Days Average: 400 Avg = 2798 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Boston is different from Austin, Boston gets cold and stays cold for a while, Boston also gets more snow than Austin. Boston also knows how to drive in snow, which no one in Austin knows how to do and causes massive delays. Regardless…. We haven’t really seen the virus go up against a real New England storm, the kind where people don’t leave the house.
The virus seems to be slowing down from its holiday surge and the storms will add to that. Less socializing, less leaving the house and…..less testing.
Side note, over the last three weeks the cases have dropped by 1033, 819, 603 respectively. Following that trend and factoring in the snow, I’d imagine that number could be 700-800 next week.
Prediction: 2100
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 4700
Actual: 4254
Accuracy: 90.51%
Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.81
Congrats Rhode Island, you had the lowest Spread Rate last week!
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.91 Spread Rate = 3858 Cases
3 Week: 0.88 Spread Rate = 3724 Cases
2 Week: 0.71 Spread Rate = 3022 Cases
14 Day Average: 677 Avg = 4742 Cases
7 Days Average: 608 Avg = 4254 Cases
14 Day average is so high because 1/18s week had 4 days above 800 cases, 3 of which were over 900. Compared to last week which didn’t have a single day over 745.
Fun Note: Full Population Infection is projected for February 1st. 2025. Soooooo never.
MY PREDICTION
Rhode Island is going to be our most interesting study going forward. The state just lifted its curfew on restaurants and had many people celebrating by going out and socializing. No complaints here, however I am curious how that affects the spread rate. My initial reaction is to say the removal of the curfew caused celebration which exposes people to the risk of contracting Covid. Yet, the snow storm and cold weather may prevent people from actually going out. And it gets real cold in Rhode Island, I know, I shoveled there a few times.
So the lifted curfew and storm should clash. This makes me think the cases for next week will fall between the 3WASR and the 2WASR.
Prediction: 3400-3500 cases……Call it 3450