Last weeks Prediction Accuracy: 85.92%
Total Project Accuracy: 85.06%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 950
Actual: 708
Accuracy: 74.53%
Spread Rate for 3/15: 0.84
FORMULA FORECASTS
2 Week: 0.84 Spread Rate = 595 Cases
14 Day Average: 111 Avg = 778 Cases
7 Days Average: 101 Avg = 708 Cases
NOTE: Data for 3 & 4 Week Averages are still affected by the winter storm disruption.
MY PREDICTION
Cases are on a decline. I should note that Austin has stricter Mask laws than the rest of the state and that the weather has been really nice the last few weeks. Streets are filled with people going out. As I’ve stated before, the Spread Rate goes down as the Temps go up. Average Temp next week is forecasted to rise, so cases should drop again.
Prediction: 650 (Not quite a 0.84 Spread Rate, but close)
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1650
Actual: 1766
Accuracy: 93.43%
Spread Rate for 3/15: 1.13
Looks like I was right about the cases rising.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.11 Spread Rate = 1964 Cases
3 Week: 1.14 Spread Rate = 2013 Cases
2 Week: 1.09 Spread Rate = 1923 Cases
14 Day Average: 238 Avg = 1666 Cases
7 Days Average: 252 Avg = 1766 Cases
MY PREDICTION
The average rise in Spread Rates over the last four weeks is 11.216%.
Using 11.216% we translate that to a spread rate of 111.21. A Spread Rate of 111.21 for last week’s 1766 cases comes out to roughly 1960 cases. My top three forecasts seem to agree with this number.
New Jersey Cases have been rising and the Governor says they may slow down the lifting of restrictions. Code for: Do nothing. Neither lift nor restrict.
I’ll trust the math on this one.
Prediction: 1950
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1200
Actual: 1319
Accuracy: 90.98%
Spread Rate for 3/15: 1.02
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.0 Spread Rate = 1315 Cases
3 Week: 0.96 Spread Rate = 1268 Cases
2 Week: 0.99 Spread Rate = 1311 Cases
14 Day Average: 186 Avg = 1304 Cases
7 Days Average: 188 Avg = 1319 Cases
MY PREDICTION
This ones tough. Mass is rolling back restrictions, they just entered Stage 4 and are allowing outdoor dining. As I have seen in Austin, outdoor activity has had a positive effect on lowering Covid numbers.
Also, cases have been hovering in the 1300 area for the last 3 weeks. Just to be safe I’ll hit a middle number. Cases can e
Also, cases have been hovering in the 1300 area for the last 3 weeks. Just to be safe I’ll hit a middle number. Cases can either go down with the increased outdoor activity or go up as socialization may rise.
Prediction: 1300
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 2150
Actual: 2537 (1880 when accounting for weekend overflow)
Accuracy: 84.75% (87.44% when accounting for weekend overflow)
Spread Rate for 3/15: 1.47
NOTE: So my previous source of Rhode Island Covid cases (The Atlantic) has stopped reporting cases. I will be moving back to my previous source: Google/NYT. The difference between the sources is that The Atlantic reported cases on the weekends while Google/NYT only reports Monday through Friday. This causes Monday to get Sat & Sun counts to be added on. This causes a slight disruption in how the data gets analyzed and forecasted.
From this point forward, I will be forecasting based on the numbers I get, but will keep in mind that the weeks numbers are not fully accurate.
FORMULA FORECASTS
Forecasts don’t work right now with the change in data gathering
MY PREDICTION
If the last two weeks had the same process of gathering data then 3/8 would have had 2381 cases. That makes last week’s Spread Rate 1.06. This is a rise from 3/1 2345 cases. Going back even further with the same process, the previous two weeks would have both been around 2400ish.
Rhode Island doesn’t plan on enacting any restrictions. Going back to my previous deep-dive into the Rhode Island Timeline of restrictions, we saw that any reduction and easing of restrictions actually had an effect on lowering cases.
That being said, the cases have been hovering in the 2400-2500 area for a while.
Side note: my “Untouched” Forecaster predicted a higher case count than it did last week. So maybe we are looking at a rise in cases?
Prediction: 2400